2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds, picks, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that’s called 8 majors

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One of the most picturesque golf courses in the United States will host this week’s stop on the PGA Tour as the world’s best players head to San Diego. Torrey Pines Golf Course will host the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open, with both golfers and fans getting to enjoy the Pacific Ocean views. The first 36 holes are split between the North and South Courses, with the final 36 holes taking place on the South Course.

Play tees off on Wednesday with the Masters just 10 weeks away. Jon Rahm, who has won each of his last two events, is the overwhelming favorite at 4-1 in the latest 2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds. Five other golfers have odds of 15-1 or shorter, per Caesars Sportsbook, including Xander Schauffele (12-1), Collin Morikawa (12-1), Justin Thomas (13-1) and Will Zalatoris (14-1). Before locking in any 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Farmers Insurance Open predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open: Collin Morikawa, a five-time PGA Tour champion and one of the favorites at 12-1, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top-10. Morikawa secured a runner-up finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions despite shooting a 72 in the final round. 

However, Morikawa has been extremely inconsistent with his putter this season. In fact, Morikawa enters this week’s event ranked 114th in strokes gained: putting (-.056), 133rd in one-putt percentage (38.19%) and 168th in overall putting average (1.642). He also ranks 214th on the PGA Tour in approaches from 75-100 yards. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 field.

Another surprise: Taylor Montgomery, a 26-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Montgomery sits at No. 9 in FedEx Cup standings and is fifth-best amongst the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 field. He netted a solid 11th-place finish at this event a year ago, and the 12-under-par he shot over the last three rounds was second-best in the tournament over that stretch.

With three top-15s over his last three events — including a fifth-place finish a week ago — Montgomery is entering this tournament with a lot of confidence. His metrics back up his recent finishes as he ranks among the top 12 in strokes gained: total (1.588) and scoring average (69.304). He also leads the tour with 175 birdies, and with the last four Farmers Insurance Open winners each breaking 14-under-par, Montgomery’s ability to break par puts him well positioned for this week. See who else to pick here

How to make 2023 Farmers Insurance Open picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer who will make surprising runs, including a massive 85-1 longshot. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So who will win the Farmers Insurance Open 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Farmers Insurance Open leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 Farmers Insurance Open odds, field

See full the Farmers Insurance Open 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +400
Xander Schauffele +1200
Collin Morikawa +1200
Tony Finau +1200
Justin Thomas +1300
Will Zalatoris +1400
Sungjae Im +2000
Max Homa +2200
Taylor Montgomery +2600
Jason Day +2700
Hideki Matsuyama +3100
Si Woo Kim +3300
Sahith Theegala +4200
Maverick Mcnealy +4200
Cameron Davis +4500
J.J. Spaun +5000
Justin Rose +5000
Keegan Bradley +5000
Harris English +6000
Scott Stallings +6500
Hayden Buckley +7000
Luke List +7500
Alex Smalley +7500
Taylor Pendrith +8500
Wyndham Clark +9500
Adam Hadwin +9500
Davis Thompson +9500
Kurt Kitayama +9500
Ryan Palmer +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Rickie Fowler +10000
Adam Svensson +10000
Thomas Detry +10000
Davis Riley +11000
Patrick Rodgers +11000
Will Gordon +11000
Emiliano Grillo +11000
Robby Shelton +11000
Cameron Champ +12000
Dean Burmester +12000
Trey Mullinax +12000
Carson Young +12000
Nick Hardy +14000
S.H. Kim +14000
Aaron Rai +15000
Ben Taylor +15000
Charley Hoffman +15000
Byeong Hun An +15000
Ben Griffin +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Sebastian Munoz +15000
Kevin Yu +15000
Matthew NeSmith +15000
Lanto Griffin +16000
Stephan Jaeger +16000
Sam Ryder +16000
Beau Hossler +16000
Brendan Steele +17000
Matthias Schmid +19000
Justin Suh +19000
Callum Tarren +19000
Lee Hodges +20000
Patton Kizzire +20000

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