San Diego State vs. New Mexico prediction, odds: 2022 Week 12 college football picks, bets by proven model

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The San Diego State Aztecs will attempt to keep up their recent dominance of the New Mexico Lobos when the clubs meet in a Mountain West football showdown Friday night. The Aztecs have won eight consecutive meetings in this rivalry and, if they make it nine Friday, they can keep their slim hopes alive for a berth in the conference title game. San Diego State won last year’s meeting 31-7 on its home turf. New Mexico is hoping to end a seven-game slide with a monumental upset that could help reverse the program’s fortunes.

Kickoff is set for 9:45 p.m. ET from University Stadium. The Aztecs are 14.5-point betting favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 36.5 in the latest San Diego State vs. New Mexico odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Before locking in any New Mexico vs. San Diego State picks, make sure you check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of nearly $3,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns. 

Now, the model has locked in on San Diego State vs. New Mexico and just released its college football picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college football odds and betting lines for San Diego State vs. New Mexico:

San Diego State vs. New Mexico point spread: San Diego State -14.5 San Diego State vs. New Mexico over/under: 36.5 San Diego State vs. New Mexico money line: San Diego State -650, New Mexico +460SDSU: The Aztecs are 8-3 against the spread in their last road 11 games against losing teams UNM: The Lobos are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings in this series San Diego State vs. New Mexico picks: See picks here

Featured Game | New Mexico Lobos vs. San Diego State Aztecs

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Why San Diego State can cover 

The improvement for San Diego State on offense started about six weeks ago and appears to have been parked by an internal coaching change. Coach Brady Hoke promoted Jeff Horton to offensive coordinator and named Ryan Lindley, a former quarterback for the Aztecs, to the position of quarterback coach.

The staff decided to make a change at quarterback to Jalen Mayden, and the offense immediately started clicking while he established a strong connection with Lindley. Mayden made his first start Oct. 8 against Hawaii and threw for 322 yards and a touchdown in the 16-14 victory.

The Aztecs are now 4-1 with Mayden under center and the unit appears to be progressing as the season wears on. Last week, they had their best output of the season against a San Jose State defense that ranks in the top 30 nationally in almost every major statistical category. Mayden threw for a career-best three touchdowns and 268 yards in the comeback victory. He was named the Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Week for his effort.

Why New Mexico can cover 

The Lobos have had their own struggles on offense, as their 14.7 points per game ranks second worst in the conference only to Colorado State at 12.9. However, the defense has been a bright spot, ranking fifth in the conference while yielding 356 yards and 26.1 points per contest. A respectable run defense that allows 4.2 yards per carry will need to step up to keep pace with a San Diego State club that pounds the ball for 163.4 yards per game.

New Mexico has had some success against upper-tier MWC opponents but has been unable to sustain early momentum. The Lobos led 14-0 against both Wyoming and UNLV in the first half before faltering in the final two quarters. The Lobos also led Utah State 10-7 at the intermission. 

How to make San Diego State vs. New Mexico picks

The model has simulated San Diego State vs. New Mexico 10,000 times and the results are in. It is leaning Under on the point total, projecting 36 total points scored. It’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in more than 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine

So who wins San Diego State vs. New Mexico? And which side of the spread hits in more than 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out. 

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