The American Express 2023 picks, odds, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that’s nailed 8 majors

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The 2023 American Express might not enjoy elevated status on the restructured PGA Tour schedule, but with the season about to heat up and a chance at three guaranteed rounds because of a unique format, five of the top seven players in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field. The American Express will begin on Thursday in La Quinta, Calif., at three different courses and there is a 54-hole cut after each golfer has completed a round at all three venues. Then the final round is hosted on the Stadium Course at PGA West and a loaded American Express field promises fireworks in 2023. The first tee times come at 11:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.

Jon Rahm won this event in 2018 and the No. 4 player in the OWGR hasn’t finished worse than eighth and has three wins over his last six worldwide starts. Rahm is listed as the 11-2 favorite in the 2023 American Express odds from Caesars Sportsbook while Patrick Cantlay is just behind him at 19-2. Scottie Scheffler (11-1) and Tony Finau (15-1) are next on this week’s PGA Tour odds board. Before locking in your 2023 American Express picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted Jon Rahm (+800) to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was all over Scottie Scheffler’s first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that The American Express 2023 field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 American Express predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at The American Express 2023: Cantlay, an eight-time PGA Tour champion and one of the favorites at +950, stumbles this week and fails to crack the top-five. Cantlay secured a runner-up finish at this event in 2021 after shooting a 61 in the final round at PGA West’s Stadium Course.

However, Cantlay enters this week’s event ranked 133rd in strokes gained: approach the green (-.139) and 132nd in strokes gained: around-the-green (-.099). He also ranks 100th on the PGA Tour in approaches from inside 100 yards. The inability to score from close range could be his downfall this week. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2023 American Express field.

Another surprise: Sungjae Im, a 21-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The South Korean star is already a two-time PGA Tour winner and he’s currently ranked 19th in the world after piling up a total of nine top-10 finishes during the calendar year of 2022.

That includes runner-up finishes at the 3M Open, the Wyndham Championship and the Tour Championship in a six-week span to wrap up the 2021-22 PGA Tour season. Im has finished in 12th position or better in each of his four career starts at The American Express and he’s coming off a season where he ranked sixth on tour in total strokes gained (1.668). See who else to pick here

How to make 2023 American Express picks

The model is also targeting three other golfers with odds of 21-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So who will win The American Express 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 American Express odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 American Express leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 American Express odds, field

See full The American Express 2023 picks, best bets, and predictions here.

Jon Rahm +550
Patrick Cantlay +950
Scottie Scheffler +1100
Tony Finau +1500
Xander Schauffele +1900
Will Zalatoris +1900
Tom Kim +2000
Sungjae Im +2100
Cameron Young +2100
Sam Burns +2900
Si Woo Kim +2900
Brian Harman +3400
Aaron Wise +4200
Tom Hoge +4200
Taylor Montgomery +4500
Cameron Davis +4800
J.T. Poston +5000
Sahith Theegala +5000
Adam Hadwin +5000
Andrew Putnam +5500
K.H. Lee +6500
Rickie Fowler +6500
Jason Day +8000
Wyndham Clark +8000
Joel Dahmen +8000
Harris English +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
Taylor Pendrith +8500
Justin Rose +8500
Patrick Rodgers +9500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +9500
Davis Riley +9500
Thomas Detry +9500
Denny McCarthy +9500
Keith Mitchell +10000
Will Gordon +10000
David Lipsky +10000
Sebastian Munoz +11000
Brendan Steele +11000
Martin Laird +12000
Brendon Todd +12000
Luke List +12000
Dean Burmester +12000
Emiliano Grillo +12000
Ben Griffin +12000
Stephan Jaeger +12000
Alex Smalley +12000
Aaron Rai +14000
Russell Knox +14000
Lee Hodges +14000
Jhonattan Vegas +16000
Nick Taylor +16000
Greyson Sigg +16000
Taylor Moore +16000
Patton Kizzire +16000
Sam Ryder +16000
Mark Hubbard +16000
Danny Willett +16000
Nate Lashley +16000
Robby Shelton +17000
S.H. Kim +17000
Justin Suh +17000
Kevin Yu +17000
Byeong Hun An +17000
Ben Taylor +17000
Troy Merritt +19000
Stewart Cink +19000
Callum Tarren +19000
Matthew NeSmith +19000
Erik Van Rooyen +21000
Satoshi Kodaira +21000
Adam Long +21000
Charley Hoffman +21000
David Lingmerth +21000

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